A debt avalanche is bearing down on the U.S. cannabis market to the tune of roughly six billion dollars coming due by the end of 2026, with the top five borrowers—each a multi-state operator (“MSO”)—accounting for about $3.4 billion. The sector’s reliance on costly debt, born of limited access to traditional capital, has set the stage for a potentially messy, uneven reckoning.
Why this matters now
- Scale and timing: The maturities bunch up into 2026, compressing the refinancing window and elevating risk across the ecosystem.
- Cash flow stress: Many capital structures are expensive, and several operators still burn cash, curbing their ability to refinance on favorable terms.
- Market significance: Despite headwinds, cannabis generated $32 billion in 2024 revenue, employed 400,000+ people, and contributed $4.4 billion in state taxes—meaning outcomes here have real economic spillovers.
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