Kalshi Inc. will likely succeed in arguing that federal law bars New Jersey gaming officials from regulating its sports prediction markets, the Third Circuit said Monday, upholding a preliminary injunction against the state.

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The majority opinion “is more notable for the arguments that it does not carefully address” like if sports-event contracts are swaps, if there’s a financial consequence to all sports wagering, or whether all sports betting must be done on a DCM, Blank Rome LLP’s Dennis M.P. Ehling said.

“Given the extent to which other courts have looked at these questions, have delved into these other arguments, I would be surprised if the Third Circuit’s opinion is not contradicted by one or more of the other federal Circuit Courts,” Ehling said.

It raises a unique question, Ehling said: “should the CFTC, an administrative agency created by Congress, have the authority to determine whether it will preempt an entire field of state law—the thousands of pages of state gaming laws and regulations that have been developed over the years to regulate gaming (and specifically sports betting)—or instead will allow the states to continue to regulate such gaming on their own?”

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"Kalshi Stays Free of New Jersey Regs with Appeals Court Win," by Gillian R. Brassil was published in Bloomberg Law on April 6, 2026.